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Agapanthus 'Blue Heaven' (La plante du mois)

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L'agriculture en Europe sous un climat plus chaud

PommierD'ici 50 ans, on prévoit un doublement de la quantité de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) dans l' atmosphère, et une augmentation de 2 à 6 °C de la température à la surface du globe. En même temps, les besoins de l' humanité croissent avec sa population. Ainsi, dans un climat globalement plus chaud, l' agriculture devra nourrir neuf milliards de têtes, alors qu'on ne sait toujours pas aujourd'hui alimenter correctement les six milliards d'habitants de la planète. L'agriculture saura-t-elle s'adapter au changement climatique ?
Pour prévoir comment se fera cette adaptation, nous devons évaluer les divers impacts du climat : ses conséquences positives d'une part, et ses effets négatifs d'autre part. Bien que les scénarios climatiques comportent encore des incertitudes, nous pouvons nous appuyer, pour prévoir l'avenir proche, sur l'observation de l'évolution récente des productions agricoles, consécutive au réchauffement du siècle passé.
Gardons cependant à l'esprit qu'il est délicat de considérer isolément les impacts du changement climatique. D'autres actions humaines perturbent l'ensemble de la production végétale et animale au sein de la biosphère continentale. Citons la déforestation (aux tropiques surtout) ou au contraire la reforestation (au rythme de 30 000 hectares par an en France), le surpâturage, la désertification et les incendies de forêts, l'urbanisation (cause par exemple d'une diminution d'environ 1,6 pour cent de la production de biomasse du continent nord - américain), ainsi que les pollutions diverses des milieux terrestres et aquatiques. L'ensemble de ces éléments de pression constitue ce qu'on appelle le changement global.

N'oublions pas que si l'eau est abondante sur terre, elle est pour l'essentiel impropre à l'utilisation directe, car salée ou à l'état de glace. En fait, seuls 0,02 % sont de l'eau douce et liquide !

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Bernard Seguin
Directeur de recherche
INRA Avigon

Journée à thème "Mieux arroser" Janvier 2008

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