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Les effets du changement climatique


Les effets du changement climatique. Cartes de Météo FranceLa contribution du Groupe de travail au quatrième rapport d'évaluation du GIEC (Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Évolution du Climat) décrit les progrès accomplis dans la compréhension scientifique des observations, des causes humaines et naturelles des changements climatiques et des estimations du changement climatique futur résultant de simulations. L'objet de ce document est de faire un état des lieux des conclusions les plus communément admises par la communauté scientifique des experts du climat, sur la base de l'observation et de la prévision, à l'échelle globale et régionale.

Le réchauffement climatique : un constat sans équivoque
Depuis le rapport de 2001, des progrès ont été faits dans la compréhension de la manière dont le climat change dans l'espace et le temps, ceci grâce aux améliorations et aux extensions de nombreuses séries de données et des analyses de données, à une meilleure compréhension des incertitudes et à une plus grande variété de mesures.

Les travaux du GIEC de 2007 sont construits a partir du rapport de 2001 et incorporent les nouveaux résultats de ces six dernières années de recherche. En matière d'observation directe des changements climatiques, le GIEC affirme que le réchauffement du système climatique est sans équivoque, car il est maintenant évident dans les observations de l'accroissement des températures moyennes mondiales de l'atmosphère et de l'océan, la fonte généralisée de la neige et de la glace, et l'élévation du niveau moyen mondial de la mer.

La température
Indéniable que le climat se réchauffe. Les informations paléoclimatiques confirment que le réchauffement du dernier demi-siècle est atypique sur au moins les 1300 dernières années. A l'aide de reconstitutions à partir de carottages glaciaires et de cernes d'arbre, il a été mis en évidence que l'augmentation de la température au cours du dernier siècle est spectaculaire (+ 0,6°C) par rapport à sa variation durant ce dernier millénaire. A l'échelle de la France, l'augmentation constatée au cours du dernier siècle est même plus forte car elle atteint 1°C.

Sur une période plus proche de nous, il a été constaté que onze des douze dernières années figurent au palmarès des douze années les plus chaudes depuis que l'on dispose d'enregistrements de la température de surfaces, autrement dit depuis 1850. La nouvelle valeur de la vitesse moyenne du réchauffement au cours des cent dernières années (1906-2005) de 0,74°C est donc plus grande que la valeur analogue calculée dans le rapport de 2001, qui était de 0,6°C sur la période de 1901-2000. La vitesse moyenne du réchauffement au cours des cinquante dernières années est de 0,13°C/décennie.

Par ailleurs de nouvelles analyses des mesures en altitude (ballons et satellites) de la température de la basse et moyenne atmosphère ont conduit à des résultats similaires à ceux obtenus en surface.

L'évolution des glaciers et du manteau neigeux
D'autres signes permettent de voir que le climat s'est réchauffé au cours du siècle dernier. La grande majorité des glaciers reculent avec une longueur qui a nettement diminué au cours de ces 100 dernières années. En guise d'illustration, le glacier d'Argentière a connu une diminution de 1000m de dénivelé. Les glaciers de montagne et de couverture neigeuse ont également décliné en moyenne dans les deux hémisphères et leurs décroissances généralisées ont contribué à l'augmentation du niveau de la mer. Les données satellitaires depuis 1978 montrent que l'étendue annuelle moyenne de la glace arctique a rétréci de 2,7% par décennie, avec une décroissance plus forte en été (7,4% par décennie).

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M Desplat
Responsable du bureau d'études et de climatolologie de METEO (Ile de France-Centre)

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